“Are we sleepwalking into a war we refuse to see?”
In this bold conversation, Retd. Lt.Col JS Sodhi doesn’t just warn—he maps out the war timelines China is already working on. From Taiwan in 2027 to India by 2035, he lays bare the silence of global alliances and the urgency for India to act. An exclusive at THE THINK POT based on his book China’s War Clouds: The Great Chinese Checkmate. He asserts, “This isn’t diplomacy. This is survival.”Read on—because not knowing is no longer an excuse. Our Visionary Voice of the Month!
Sir, your book discusses China’s six potential wars over the next 39 years. Given the increasing tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, do you believe China will accelerate its military ambitions, possibly compressing this timeline.
Though of late, the tensions in the South China Sea have been on a rise, it is unlikely that China will prepone its decision to wage its first of the six wars that it has to launch in the next 38 years, which is the war for Taiwan in 2027, as the year 2027 has immense symbolic significance for China. The Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) of China completes 100 years of raising in 2027, having been founded on August 01, 1927 during the Nanchang Uprising. With Taiwan being the top-most military aim for China, the year 2027 perfectly fits with President Xi Jinping’s overall military and personal plans to project himself as the tallest Chinese leader after Mao Zedong.
And this year, on May 31, 2025, Pete Hegseth, the US Defence Secretary warned that China is actively training to invade Taiwan. Similar sentiments were echoed by Mark Rutte, the NATO Secretary General on June 25, 2025 when he expressed concern over China’s “massive” military buildup which has raised the risk of war over Taiwan.
Two serious events have happened after I wrote my book in May 2024. One, the regime change in Bangladesh on August 05, 2024. Two, the commencement of the construction of the Medog Dam by China on July 19, 2025.
Ever since the regime change has happened in Bangladesh on August 05, 2024, the nation has been turning blatantly anti-India and the collusivity between China, Pakistan & Bangladesh has been deepening. And so is the military cooperation between the three nations increasing. On July 09, 2025, General Anil Chauhan stated that the convergence of interests between China, Pakistan & Bangladesh will have serious implications for India’s stability and security dynamics.
On July 08, 2025, Pema Khandu, the Chief Minister of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh that borders China, in a candid statement that the Medog Dam being built by China is a “ticking water bomb” and poses an existential threat to the state. The construction of the world’s largest dam on River Brahmaputra has commenced on July 19, 2025. Once the Medog Dam is completed in 2030, China will control the river flow at a scale and size that would enable it to release large amounts of water to flood the areas downstream in times of hostilities commencing between India and China. The major brunt of this intentional flooding would be Arunachal Pradesh.
In my personal analysis as a defence expert, the two-front war on us can be expected any time after 2030.
How do you assess the effectiveness of AUKUS and the Quad in countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific? Do you think these alliances can prevent a large-scale conflict, or are they merely delaying the inevitable?
Alliances like AUKUS and QUAD are non-military alliances and their efficacy in case of a war is extremely doubtful. With the USA under President Donald Trump, drifting apart from NATO and Ukraine, it would be extremely unrealistic to expect AUKUS and QUAD giving any military response to any of China’s six future wars. Hence, in my book “China’s War Clouds: The Great Chinese Checkmate”, I have discussed that the littoral nations of the South China Sea and India should form a military alliance, as these nations are the most affected by China’s military aggressiveness and designs.
Australia which is an integral part of AUKUS along with Japan who constitute the four-nation Quad alliance along with the USA and India are gravitating towards China. The Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s statement “Engaging with China is in our interest to build a stable & secure region” on July 13, 2025 during his six-day visit to China clearly shows the Australian change in stance towards China, a far cry from 2020 when Australia had called for an international inquiry to probe China’s involvement in the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Japan and a long-term ally of the US in the North East, South Korea are in fast-paced talks since July 01, 2025 for trilateral cooperation with China amid the US Tariff War unleashed by President Donal Trump in a proactive effort to safeguard regional stability and economic resilience.
Not much sheen is left is AUKUS and Quad to take on China economically. Quad conversion to a military alliance in future is simply ruled out due to the tectonic shifts happening within the alliance.
Recent reports indicate that China has significantly expanded its military bases in the South China Sea despite legal rulings against its territorial claims. Should the international community take a more aggressive stance, such as economic sanctions or military deterrence?
Due to the deep pockets and the vast financial clout that China has, the international organisations are helpless when it comes to taking a firm stand on China’s territorial claims that extends beyond its borders. However, the littoral nations of the South China Sea and India should regularly call-out China in various international forums. China is very conscious of its public image and hence such call-outs will slowly but surely have an impact on China. Silence is not an option any more. Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander, US Indo-Pacific Command on October 28, 2024 has stated that the biggest military build-up in world history is being done by China. The same Admiral last month on February 13, 2025 has said that China is rehearsing for the war on Taiwan.
More recently, General Upendra Dwivedi, Chief of the Army Staff, Indian Army on March 17, 2025 stated that a two-front war on India is no longer a possibility, but a reality. Clearly, the war clouds have started darkening on Taiwan and India, the two nations most and directly affected by China’s war aims. China will attack Taiwan in 2027 and will wage a two-front war jointly with Pakistan on India in 2035. The third war under Xi Jinping’s Presidency will be the war for Spratly Islands in 2029.
An indication of China’s aggressive war stance was notably visible during the 88-hour India-Pakistan Conflict in May 2025 when China openly came to the aid of Pakistan militarily. On July 04, 2025 Lieutenant General Rahul R Singh, the Deputy Chief of the Army Staff, Indian Army in a seminar in New Delhi candidly spoke of Pakistan receiving live updates of the Indian Army’s vectors from China, as the two nuclear-armed neighbours were embroiled in the 88-hour military confrontation from May 07-10, 2025. The General Officer also mentioned China using Pakistan as a live laboratory for testing its weapons.
Given the recent Chinese infrastructure buildup in Tibet and its increased military drills near Arunachal Pradesh, how serious is the threat of a full-scale India-China war in the next decade? You have also warned about a two-front war involving China and Pakistan. How should India strategically prepare for this possibility, especially considering the deepening military ties between China and Pakistan?
The rapid pace with which China is developing its infrastructure build-up in Tibet and Xinjiang which come under its Western Theatre Command that is tasked for operations against India, is indeed a matter of worry. Adding to the concern is the rapid increase in China’s military and technological rise. On January 08, 2025, Air Chief Marshal AP Singh, Chief of the Air Staff of the Indian Air Force, expressed concerns over the increased militarisation by China and Pakistan and the rapid pace at which the forces were growing at India’s northern and western borders. The Air Chief further said that even China’s technology is growing at a very rapid pace. The writing on the wall is very clear. China has military designs for India and we aren’t fully geared to meet this two-front threat.
General MM Naravane, the 28th Chief of the Army Staff, Indian Army who retired in 2022, has written an article in The Print on August 07, 2023, in which he has said that a two-front war on India will be disastrous for the nation. These words coming from a former Indian Army Chief itself is a cause of worry. China is three decades ahead of India in military preparedness and if the combat power of Pakistan is added to it, the balance of power tilts heavily towards the China-Pakistan combine compared to India. Since there is a decade to go by 2035, India needs to do three things on priority. Firstly, is to increase its defence budget which has been steadily decreasing from 2.5% of the GDP in 2019 to 1.9% of the GDP in 2025. On July 07, 2025 the Indian Defence Secretary RK Singh stated that the defence expenditure would be increased from 1.9% to 2.5% of the GDP.
China has increased its defence budget for the last 10-straight years. Secondly, to decrease the timelines for defence procurement and direct the Integrated Financial Advisors (IFAs) to expedite the clearances for defence purchases by various military formations. Thirdly, utmost importance should be given for developing Artificial Intelligence (AI) and integrating it in the defence formations and weapon systems, for AI will play a pivotal role in the future wars to be waged by China. President Vladimir Putin on September 01, 2017 has remarked that the nation which will lead in AI will rule the world. China is well on its track to become the global leader in AI by 2030.
Considering China’s recent border provocations and India’s military upgrades along the LAC, do you foresee another Doklam or Galwan-type incident soon? If so, how should India respond differently this time?
Chin is unlikely to repeat Doklam and Galwan Valley type incidents in the run-up to 2035. This is because the military aims of both the Doklam and Galwan Valley incidents have been achieved by China. Doklam was done in 2017 as China wanted to re-robate and re-deploy its troops according to the newly raised theatre commands which were raised on February 01, 2016. The Galwan Valley incident of 2020 was to send a strong and stern message to India over the abrogation of Article 370 and 35A done in 2019. China will not want to rile India till 2027 when it will wage the war for Taiwan as China knows that it is incapable of fighting a two-front war with Taiwan on its eastern part and with India on its western borders. The period till 2027 will see the façade of China’s peace with India. Tensions between China and India will start rising after 2027, which will eventually culminate in the two-front war with Pakistan on India in 2035.
China’s economic slowdown has led to increased military posturing. How does Beijing’s economic fragility impact its global strategic decisions, and should India and its allies prepare for a more aggressive China in the short term?
China’s economic slowdown isn’t a slowdown in reality. China hasn’t declared US$
3 trillion in its cashbooks and earns huge amount by producing illicit drugs. Till the early- 1980s the two main sources of illicit drugs for the world were regions known infamously as Golden Triangle and Golden Crescent. While the Golden Triangle consists of a large mountainous region of approximately 200,000 square kilometres comprising northeastern Myanmar, northwestern Thailand and northern Laos, centred on the confluence of the Ruak and Mekong rivers, the Golden Crescent comprises the region located at the crossroads of Central, South and West Asia covering the mountainous peripheries of Afghanistan and Pakistan, extending into eastern Iran. China is now the world’s biggest producer of precursor chemicals which are mandatory for the production of crystal methamphetamine, fentanyl, cocaine and 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) apart from growing cannabis, ephedra and opium poppy on a massive scale.
I don’t feel that China is in an economic fragile situation. Rather, its sound economic position as is clearly demonstrated by the fact that it has a global manufacturing share of 36.7% and is the leader in 57 of the 64 critical technologies that exist globally. Yes, India and those nations who are affected by China’s growing military assertiveness should enter a military alliance, as a military alliance is the only assured way of ensuring that no military strikes are conducted on member-nations. A classic example being that Russia till date hasn’t attacked any NATO member-nation.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this interview are the personal opinions of the interviewee. The facts and opinions appearing in the answers do not reflect the views of The Think Pot or that of the interviewer. The Think Pot does not hold any responsibility or liability for the same.